EV Debate Heats Up on Campaign Trail as Consumer Interest Cools
Henry Hoenig
· 8 min read
The growing debate over electric vehicles (EVs) is intertwined with multiple other issues that are sure bets to rile up American voters, including cars, gas prices, Chinese imports, jobs, and climate change. That means EVs and related policies have all the elements of a hot-button issue as the 2024 election campaign gets underway.
To see how this might affect Americans’ votes, Jerry dug into their attitudes toward EVs, particularly those of so-called Red America versus Blue America.
Here’s what we found:
Key Insights
- Interest in driving an EV continues to slide. Thirty-five percent of American drivers are interested in an EV as their next vehicle, down from 41% in a survey a little less than five months earlier and 49% in late 2022.
- Two thirds (66%) of all respondents say the U.S. will not build the necessary infrastructure by 2032 to make EV ownership as convenient as ownership of gas-powered vehicles. That includes 80% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats.
- Republicans appear slightly more motivated to vote based on EV policies, with 39% saying they will be a factor in their decision in the 2024 presidential election. That compares to 32% of Democrats.
- A little more than half (53%) of respondents who said EV policies will be a factor in their vote will probably or definitely vote for a pro-EV candidate. That includes 89% of Democrats. Among Republicans, 73% said they will probably not or definitely not vote for a pro-EV candidate.
- Twice as many Democrats as Republicans say they are interested in buying or leasing an EV as their next vehicle. Nearly half (48%) of Democrats say they’re interested, compared to 22% of Republicans.
- Nearly a third of Republicans (29%) think EVs are “un-American,” compared to 7% of Democrats. Overall, 16% of American drivers say EVs are un-American, including 22% of Baby Boomers and 18% of Gen X.
- Nearly two thirds (63%) of Republicans are unhappy (36%) or angry (28%) about recent Biden administration emissions rules that will de facto require U.S. automakers to shift almost entirely to EVs by 2032. Only a minority (28%) of Democrats said they were unhappy (14%) or angry (14%).
- Nearly all (95%) Republicans and two thirds (67%) of Democrats who are unhappy or angry about the Biden administration’s emissions rules say forcing automakers to produce only EVs is an infringement on their personal freedom.
- Two thirds of Democrats (67%) agree or strongly agree with the statement that mass adoption of EVs is critical to cutting greenhouse gas emissions and limiting the impact of climate change. Among Republicans, 19% agree and 4.9% strongly agree.
- More than half (56%) of Republicans and a quarter (24%) of Democrats agree with the statement, “Mandatory mass adoption of EVs would result in Chinese-brand cars flooding the U.S. market.”
- Two thirds (66%) of Republicans and a quarter (24%) of Democrats agree with the statement, “Mandatory mass adoption of EVs will cost thousands of American jobs.”
On the Slide
Interest in driving an EV has plunged among all demographics since 2022, even as prices fell and more models hit the market. It has dropped significantly, from 41% to 35%, since our last survey for the
Jerry 2024 State of the American Driver
report just under five months ago.Those interested in buying or leasing an EV as their next vehicle were in the minority of every single demographic Jerry surveyed. The closest to reaching a majority were Democrats at 48%, followed by Gen Z and Millennials at 46% each. Nearly half (45%) of men were interested, but only 25% of women said they were.
To be sure, EV sales are likely to hit a record again this year. But sales growth is slowly sharply and dealer inventories have been
piling up
. Look no further than gas prices for the most likely reason. They peaked at an all-time high just above $5 a gallon in the summer of 2022, when EVs were hottest, but fell to more manageable levels by the end of that year and now sit around $3.50 a gallon. Saving money on gas is the primary motivation of those who are interested in buying or leasing an EV as their next vehicle, with 77% of survey respondents selecting it. That includes at least 75% of every generation. By contrast, only 56% of respondents cited concern about the environment for their interest and 39% pointed to EVs becoming more affordable.
Just Because
But the top reason for the lack of interest—among every single demographic and group except Democrats—was “I just prefer gas-powered cars.” That preference might encompass concerns about driving range and charging, but it also points to a deeper resistance to EVs that appears to border on nostalgia, at least for some.
Among those who just prefer gas-powered cars, 71% said they preferred them because they are more reliable than EVs. Another 41% selected “Because I grew up with them,” 9% said the sound of their engines and 9% said “they are more American than EVs.” Among Republicans, the top answer was reliability (77%), while for Democrats it was because they grew up with them (53%).
Among all respondents, 16% said EVs are flat-out un-American. That includes 29% of Republicans, 20% of people who live in rural areas, and 16% of people who live in cities. Women (20%) were more likely than men (13%) to say EVs are un-American.
Forcing the Issue
Earlier this year, the Environmental Protection Agency, seeking to stave off catastrophic climate change, announced new emissions regulations that will de facto force U.S. automakers to produce mostly EVs by 2032. Reaction was typically varied, but even 10% of those who are interested in an EV as their next vehicle said the new rules made them unhappy or angry.
Among all survey respondents, 38% said they were unhappy or angry, while only 25% said they were happy or excited.
Nearly two thirds (63%) of Republicans were unhappy or angry, while more than a quarter (28%) of Democrats were.
Older generations were the most upset. Half (50%) of Baby Boomers said they were unhappy or angry, versus 44% of Gen X, 31% of Millennials, and 17% of Gen Z.
Many Republicans and Democrats see the EPA’s move as unnecessary government overreach. Nearly all Republicans (95%) say the new rules amount to an unacceptable infringement on their personal freedom. That was the highest percentage giving that answer of any demographic or group. But two thirds of Democrats (67%) agreed with Republicans on this.
One problem Republicans have with the new rules is that they don’t accept the premise that the rules are needed to fight climate change. More than half (53%) of Republicans disagreed with the statement, “Mass adoption of EVs is critical to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit the impact of man-made climate change.” On the other hand, only 7.6% of Democrats disagreed with that statement, while 67% agreed with it.
Still, a quarter (24%) of Republicans agreed that EVs are needed to fight climate change.
One apparent reason for unhappiness with the new emissions rules is skepticism that the necessary infrastructure will be available. Two thirds (66%) of all respondents said they didn’t think the U.S would build the infrastructure needed by 2032 to make owning an EV as convenient as owning a gas-powered car. That includes 80% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats.
A Flood of Chinese Vehicles?
Another apparent concern is whether U.S. automakers are ready to compete in the global EV market. More than half (58%) of all respondents—including 72% of Republicans and 42% of Democrats—said they don’t believe U.S. automakers will become leaders in the EV market. That included 64% of Baby Boomers, who are old enough to remember the “invasion” of Japanese vehicles that began in the 1970s.
Now Chinese car makers are the concern. A third (34%) of all respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement, “Mandatory mass adoption of EVs in the U.S. due to Biden administration policies means Chinese-brand cars will flood the U.S. market.” While that’s a minority, it’s more than the 27% of all respondents who disagreed or strongly disagreed.
Among Republicans, 56% agreed that Chinese cars would flood the market under the new rules. That’s more than twice as many as the 24% of Democrats who agreed with the statement.
Many people also see lots of American jobs at stake. Among all respondents, 42% said mass adoption of EVs in the U.S. will cost thousands of Americans their jobs. That included 66% of Republicans and 24% of Democrats. Only a minority of Democrats (47%) disagreed.
Voting on It
But how much will EVs and related policies influence people’s votes at a time when most are entrenched on one side of the Blue-Red divide?
A third (34%) of all respondents to Jerry’s survey said EV-related policies will be a factor in their decision at the polls. Republicans appear most motivated by the issue, with 39% saying it would influence their decision. For Democrats, it was 32%.
Slightly more Millennials (38%) and members of Gen Z (36%) say their vote will be more motivated by EVs than do Gen Xers (33%) or Boomers (29%).
Republicans are more divided on EV policies than Democrats. Among those who said EV policies would influence their vote, 27% of Republicans said they would probably (14%) or definitely (12%) vote for a pro-EV candidate. That compares to 89% of Democrats.
By generation, 84% of Gen Z and 67% of Millennials probably or definitely will vote for the pro-EV candidate, versus 39% of Gen X and 35% of Boomers.
Conclusion
The growing debate over electric vehicles (EVs) touches on some quintessentially American passions and preoccupations: cars and the open road, the price of gas, the sound of an engine, imported vehicles, auto worker jobs, personal freedom.
So maybe it was natural that Americans’ attitudes toward EVs would eventually split them along familiar lines: Republican and Democrat, urban and rural, young and old. Toss climate change into the mix and it was likely inevitable.
But the divisions aren’t quite as neat as that. President Joe Biden’s campaign managers likely wouldn’t take much comfort in hearing that two thirds of Democrats believe the new EPA rules are an infringement on their personal freedom, for example. But they might enjoy hearing that a quarter of Republicans think EVs are necessary to fight climate change.
In any case, while EVs likely won’t be the biggest campaign issue this year, they are at the nexus of a number of strong political undercurrents, so the debate is likely just getting started.
Methodology
All survey data is based on a nationally representative survey of 1,300 respondents conducted in April 2024 using Pollfish. Respondents were filtered to include only those aged 18+ who own or lease a vehicle and drive at least once a week. More information about Pollfish and its audiences can be found on its
website
.
